U.S. Cannabis Industry Misses Out on $10 Billion in Global Market Potential

As the global cannabis industry flourishes, the United States remains sidelined due to federal restrictions on cannabis exports. Countries like Canada, Portugal, and Colombia have embraced international trade, leaving the U.S. behind in a market that could contribute up to $10 billion annually in trade, jobs, and economic influence. This significant opportunity loss is attributed to outdated federal laws prohibiting the export of cannabis products, a stance that continues to hinder American companies from participating in the rapidly growing global cannabis economy

GreenWave Advisors' Matt Karnes highlights the stark contrast between the U.S. and other nations in the cannabis trade. By comparing the potential cannabis export market to existing U.S. exports in wine, beer, tobacco, and pharmaceuticals, Karnes estimates that the U.S. could generate at least $10 billion annually if it engaged in global cannabis trade. Currently, due to federal restrictions, this potential revenue remains untapped, while other countries are capitalizing on their early market entry

Despite the global cannabis market's expansion, the U.S. federal government has doubled down on restrictive measures. In 2025, instead of liberalizing cannabis laws, Congress redefined hemp regulations, pulling many hemp-derived products back into a Schedule I classification by 2026. This move further complicates the path for American cannabis companies looking to enter the global market, as it stifles one of the few segments that had begun to operate at a national level

Countries like Canada and Portugal are not only expanding their cannabis exports but are also setting international standards for quality and compliance. In 2023-24, Canada exported CA$218 million worth of medical cannabis, while Portugal nearly tripled its export volume. These nations, along with Colombia, are establishing themselves as leaders in the global cannabis supply chain, while the U.S. lacks a presence at the international negotiating table, missing out on shaping industry standards

The potential for the U.S. to dominate the global cannabis market is significant, given its expertise and infrastructure. California, in particular, is renowned for its cannabis quality and innovation, much like its leadership in agriculture with products like wine and almonds. Industry leaders like Graham Farrar of Glass House Brands emphasize that lifting federal export barriers could immediately position the U.S. as a global leader, leveraging its established reputation and market demand

Experts warn that the U.S. risks ceding ground to proactive nations unless it addresses federal cannabis laws. Todd Harrison of CB1 Capital underscores the importance of federal reform to unlock the U.S.'s competitive advantage in cannabis. Without changes, the U.S. will continue to watch from the sidelines as other countries set benchmarks and capture market share. The ongoing federal prohibition not only limits economic opportunities but also excludes the U.S. from influencing global cannabis regulations

The path forward for the U.S. cannabis industry requires addressing federal prohibition to enable interstate commerce and international exports. This would involve significant policy shifts and a reevaluation of regulatory frameworks to align with global standards. As the global cannabis market continues to grow, the U.S. must act swiftly to reposition itself as a leader, or risk being permanently left behind in a burgeoning industry